Simulation Models

This definition is from MOOC Module 4 which states that simulation models are used to test “policy” implications of potential planning decisions.

Simulations can help to:

• Give a sense of where current policies will lead;
• Identify consequences of “no changes”;
• Identify the most damaging gaps in future educational performance, and set priorities; and
• Assess technical and financial feasibility of various options.

They support the generation of credible, sector-wide, participatory and costed plans, as they help to:

• Identify achievable versus unachievable targets;
• Quantify resources necessary to be mobilized for a given set of targets;
• Anticipate future changes in the values of key indicators; and
• Verify coherence of all (closely interdependent) components of the system.

Simulation models facilitate negotiation with stakeholders on policy objectives and resourcing and help in building a consensus (if not “compromise”) on what to do and how:

• They are an effective tool for policy dialogue among stakeholders (including the finance ministry).
• They clearly explain the reasons and logic of resources requested.
• During negotiations, simulation models can integrate indicators of concern to different stakeholders and visualize their impact on sector performance and resource requirements.
• They make it simple to reflect changes, as points of view move.

Simulation is useful throughout the planning cycle and can assist in almost all stages of the policy process by helping to

• Assess the present situation;
• Define, test and plan policy interventions; and
• Evaluate policy outcomes.