Tool 3.3: Tips, Checklist and Examples

Need-based projections are driven by a target in terms of participation: in the case of ECE, the Net Enrolment Rate or the % of Grade 1 students with pre-school experience, for instance. All the financial projections are based on this target and resulting enrolment, and the costs associated with providing services for them (Example 1: Sao Tome and Principe simulation model). These models are commonly prepared as part of ESPs and are based on a comprehensive view of Education and ECE costs.

Intervention-based projections, less commonly used than need-based projections, assume an increase in the capacity to provide ECE services and/or in the demand for them from the SP interventions, for instance by building new schools/classrooms or reducing fees or other costs for families. The number of children enrolled will be derived from this increase in capacity or demand. Because they are driven by interventions, and often ignore existing core functions of the Ministry of Education, these models are generally not all-inclusive, but rather project costs that would be additional to the current education budget. In this way they are generally more detailed and less comprehensive than need-based projection models (Example 2: Lesotho ECE simulation tool).